On Wednesday, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its fifth economic and revenue forecasts of the 2021-2023 biennium.
First quarter personal income was $1.7 billion (.07%) above the March forecast, personal income tax revenue is up $2.8 billion (13.7%) from the close of session forecast (COS).
Corporate tax revenue is up $931 (69.3%) from the 2021 COS.
General fund (GF) gross revenue is up $3.96 billion (16.9%) from the 2021 COS estimate and net GF and Lottery resources are up $5.1 billion (18.4%) from the 2021 COS estimate.
As a result, Oregon’s personal kicker is projected to kick to the tune of $3.03 billion for 2023 as opposed to the projection of $964.2 million back in March – this figure far surpasses previous kicker amounts. As for the corporate kicker, it is now expected to kick to the tune of $ 931.0 million, as opposed to the projection of $633.8 million back in March. Of course this kicker will be dedicated to K-12 education spending during the next biennium.
Projected 2021-2023 net general fund resources are up $2.34 billion from the March forecast, projected 2021-2023 Lottery resources are up $49.2 million (2.7%) from the March forecast, and as a result, projected combined net GF and Lottery resources are up $2.39 billion from the March forecast.
It should also be noted that Oregon’s reserves – like the “Rainy Day Fund” and the Educational Stability Fund both have substantial reserves available.
Attached are materials from today’s presentation.JuneERF.pdfJuneRev.pdf