SDAO Legislative Program


SDAO provides legislative representation and advocacy services on behalf of its members on issues that come before the Oregon Legislature and various state administrative agencies. The majority of these services are performed by SDAO’s Government Affairs staff. Policy direction and guidance is provided by the SDAO Board of Directors and SDAO’s Legislative Committee which meets twice a month during legislative sessions. In a typical legislative year, the SDAO Legislative Committee will review and act on approximately 1,000 pieces of legislation, each of which may have an impact on special districts.  

SDAO Government Affairs Department
PO Box 12613
Salem OR 97309-0613
Toll-free: 800-285-5461
Salem Area Phone: 503-371-8667
Fax: 503-371-4781

  • Hasina Wittenberg, Government Affairs Director
    503-708-8079
  • Mark Landauer, Government Affairs
    503-896-2338
 
SDAO Legislative Committee  (you must be logged in to view this content)

 

2019 Legislative Session


Each Tuesday, these bill tracker and summary documents will be updated with the most recent information available.

Bill Tracker
Bill Summary

SDAO Legislative Day

Thank you to everyone who joined us for the 2019 SDAO Legislative Day! We had approximately 70 individuals representing SDAO members in attendance. Below are links to topics discussed:

PERS Presentation

Employer Rate Projection Tool

SB 1566: Employer Rate Relief Programs Info

SB 1566 GovDelivery Email Sign-Up


 Legislative Update (8/30/2019) 
   

Revenue Forecast (8/28/19)


Today,
the Office of Economic Analysis presented its first economic and revenue forecasts of the 2019-2021 biennium.  Not much fanfare to report except that Oregon’s economy continues to chug along with higher wages, and continued economic expansion despite some cracks that are emerging in the economy.

 

Second quarter personal income tax collections were up $260 million (8.1%) from the June forecast and personal income is up $1.3 billion (0.6%) from the June forecast.    Second quarter corporate income tax collections were down $25.8 million (-6.2 %) from the June forecast and is up $675 (62.7%) from the 2017 COS estimate.  General Fund (GF) gross revenue is up $2.245 million (11.5%) from the 2017 COS estimate and Net GF and Lottery resources are up $2.062 million (12.2%) from the 2017 COS estimate.  

 

As a result, Oregon’s PERSONAL Kicker will kick to the projected tune of $1.57 million (the 3rd largest kicker in the state’s history)  and the CORPORATE Kicker will kick to the tune of $675.6 million which will be dedicated to K-12 education spending during this biennium.

 

Projected 2019-2021 combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $324 million (1.3%) from the June Forecast.  Currently, the state has healthy levels of money in the Educational Stability Fund and Rainy Day Funds that will temper any substantial reductions in revenues to the state.

 

One thing to keep an eye on is that the economists are predicting a reduction of 3.5% in available General Fund and Lottery Resources in the 2021-2023 biennium. 

 

Generally speaking, the American economy is beginning to show cracks, particularly in the bond markets, manufacturing and trade policy.  There is a 33% to 50% chance of the economy going into a recession in the next year.  What is really helping the country stay out of a recession at the moment is consumer spending which remains strong.  However, if American consumers stop spending and having a positive outlook, the likelihood of a recession will increase.  Oregon is experiencing slower growth but there is still job growth and wage growth has really helped Oregon over the last three or four years.


 

Close of Session Revenue Forecast (5/15/19)

 

Today, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its eighth and final economic and revenue forecasts of the 2017-2019 biennium.  This is a critical moment for several reasons; chiefly because this forecast sets the stage for building the next biennium's budget and also shows the predicted windfall of new funding expected as the result of passage of HB 3427, the new corporate tax bill that is awaiting the Governor’s signature.  It also sets the marker for the next potential personal and corporate kickers.

 

First quarter personal income tax collections were up $241.8 million (13.1%) from the March forecast but personal income is down $0.6 billion (-0.3%) from the March forecast.  Personal income tax revenue is up $1.44 billion (8.4%) from the Close of Session Forecast (COS).  First quarter corporate income tax collections were up $61.4 million (149.0%) from the March forecast and is up $615.9 million (57.2%) from the 2015 COS estimate.  General Fund (GF) gross revenue is up $2.02 billion (10.4%) from the 2017 COS estimate and net GF and Lottery resources are up $2.388 billion (11.2%) from the 2015 COS estimate.  

 

As a result, it is predicted that the personal kicker will kick to the tune of as much as $1.41 billion that will be credited to taxpayers tax liability and the corporate kicker will kick to the tune of $615.9 million and be dedicated to the K-12 education spending for the upcoming biennium.  

 

Projected 2017-2019 projected combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $875.5 million (4.3%) from the March Forecast.  The projected ending balance is up $869.7 million from the March forecast resulting in a projected $199.4 million transfer to the state's Rainy Day Fund.

 

Importantly, next biennium's projected Net Combined Resources (GF & Lottery) is expected to be nearly $24.77 billion, or nearly $770 million more than that previous forecast.

Revenue Forecast
Revenue Summary


 

State Revenue Forecast (2/27/19)

Today, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its seventh of eight economic and revenue forecasts for 2017-2019. This forecast will likely serve as the Ways & Means Co-Chairs' current law budget for the 2019-2021 biennium. The current forecast anticipates a slowdown in the economy next year, but interestingly, the slowdown has not impacted long-term revenue projections that much.  Much of that is due to the continued increase in population. One of the big concerns state economists have had was population stagnation in much of the state.  However, the statistics are showing that all of Oregon, including rural areas are seeing population growth. The only exception to this is Grant County. At this time, the office is not predicting a recession for the Oregon Economy.  

Revenues continue to beat predictions and as a result Oregonians' predicted kicker in 2019 has been increased for the 3rd time from the previous forecasts. As you will recall, the kicker is provided in the form of an income tax rebate. You will also recall that one of the primary drivers for the kicker has been the Federal Tax Cut that was enacted earlier this year. This will cause some strain during the 2019–2021 session which is already predicted to face nearly a $1 billion structural shortfall in meeting current service levels. With talk about a possible recession in the future one should recall that Oregon is now in its best position it has ever been when the inevitable downturn in the economy returns – meaning that the state has saved nearly 10% of the what is being spent in the current biennium. Thereby, placing the state in the position to be able to draw from those savings when the inevitable slowdown actually occurs.

Now to the numbers:

Projected 2017-19 net General Fund resources are up $144.1 million (0.7%) from the December forecast. Projected 2017-19 Lottery resources are up $3.8 million (.3%) from the last forecast. Combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $147.8 million (0.7%) from the June forecast.

 

Personal income tax revenue was up $693.3 million (4.0%) from the Close of Session (COS) estimate. Corporate tax revenue was up $120.3 million (186.5% from the December forecast and is up $352.8 million (32.8%) from the COS forecast). Net GF and Lottery resources are up $1.487.6 billion  (7.0%) from the COS forecast.

 

As a result, both the Personal and Corporate Kickers will kick even more than previously predicted. The December forecast predicted a personal kicker of $724.4 million personal kicker. The December forecasted personal kicker is now $748.5 million. The Corporate Kicker, which is directed to education rather than back to corporations will see an infusion of an additional $120 million over the December forecast for a total of $352.8 million.

 

The ending balance for this biennium is expected to be about $1.255 billion and is up nearly $144 million from the last forecast.

Overall Economic Forecast
Revenue Forecast



Election Update (11/14/18)

 

SDAO Government Affairs Staff have compiled results from the November 6, 2018 general election. Please see below for information about candidates and measures.

House Candidates
Senate Candidates
Statewide Candidates
Miscellaneous Measures
Infrastructure Measures
Library and Park Measures
Public Safety Measures
School Measures

 


2018 SDAO Legislative Summary

The 2018 SDAO Legislative Summary has been mailed to all district key contacts and is also available for download


State Revenue Forecast (5/23/18)

Much earlier today, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its fourth of eight economic and revenue forecasts of the 2017-2019 biennium (it is hard to believe we are already half-way through).  Oregon's overall growth continues to slow but revenues continue to beat predictions and as a result, Oregonians may very well see a kicker in 2019 in the form of a tax rebate.  The other primary driver of the unexpected windfall when the Close of Session (COS) forecast was made back in May of 2017 (kicker is based off the COS prediction – if revenues exceed the forecast by more than 2% the kicker kicks and taxpayers get back anything exceeding the COS forecast), is the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) that was passed by Congress earlier this year.  Those changes and the response to those changes by the Oregon Legislative Assembly during the short legislative session are largely responsible for this sudden influx of revenue.  However, this will also cause some strain during the 2019 – 2021 session which is already predicted to face a nearly $2 billion structural shortfall in meeting current service levels.  Interestingly, Oregon is now in its best position it has ever been when the inevitable downturn in the economy returns – which could happen rather quickly in the event of a trade war with China.

 

Now to the numbers:

 

Projected 2017-19 net General Fund Resources are up $833.1 million (4.1%) from the March forecast.  Projected 2017-19 Lottery resources are up $9. million (0.6%) from the last forecast.  Combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $842.1 million (3.9%) from the March forecast.

 

Personal income tax revenue was down $1.1 billion (-0.6%) from the March forecast but is up $547 million (3.2%) from the Close of Session (COS) estimate.  Corporate tax revenue was up $77 million from the March forecast and is up $196.7 million (18.3%) from the COS forecast (due to TCJA).  Net GF and Lottery resources are up $1.097 billion  (5.1%) from the COS forecast.

 

As a result of this forecast both the Personal and Corporate Kickers will kick.  Based on these numbers a Personal Kicker of $555.3 million will go back to those tax payers with a tax liability (2017’s kicker was about $464 million by comparison).  The Corporate Kicker, which is directed to education rather than back to corporations, will see an infusion of $196.7 million.

 

The ending balance for this biennium is expected to by about $911 million and is up nearly $766 million from the last forecast. 


 

State Revenue Forecast (2/16/18)

Today the Office of Economic Analysis presented its third economic and revenue forecasts of the 2017-2019 biennium.  Oregon's economy continues to grow.  However, Oregon's overall growth is slowing with the loss of nearly 9,300 jobs and personal income down nearly a half billion from the December forecast.  This forecast is one that is marked with a great deal of uncertainty - made all the more difficult because the market correction that took place last week.  The other primary driver of the uncertainty is due to the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) that was recently passed by Congress.  Specifically, it is difficult to predict the behavior of individuals and corporations based on their accountants advice.  For example, it is difficult to predict what corporations who repatriate their offshore savings will do, whether they will reinvest that money, buy back stock, hand out large dividends and so on.  As a result, there are a lot of unknowns.

 

It should also be pointed out that this forecast is based on CURRENT LAW.  The Legislative Assembly is working on a bill, SB 1529, that would change statute, in response to the (TCJA) that is predicted to result in a net $240 million additional to state revenue. 

 

Projected 2017-19 net General Fund Resources are up $69.8 million (0.3%) from the December forecast.  Projected 2017-19 Lottery resources are up $29.3 million (2.1%) from the last forecast.  Combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $99.1 million (0.5%) from the December forecast.

 

Personal income tax revenue is up $27.4 million (0.2%) from the Close of Session (COS) estimate.  Corporate tax revenue is down $98.8 million (9-9.2%) from the COS forecast (due to TCJA).  Net GF and Lottery resources are up $255.4 million (1.2%) from the COS forecast.

 

At this point there is no personal or corporate kicker projected for the 2019-2021.  However you will recall that you will get a personal income tax kicker in the form of a tax credit for your Oregon income taxes for 2017.  The amount the kicker total is approximately $463 million.

 

Interestingly, Oregon's Rainy Day Fund and Educational Stability Fund combined with General Fund reserves are currently at $1.3 billion representing 7% of the current General Fund and is expected to increase to $1.54 billion, or 7.9% of the GF, by the end of the biennium.

 

Bottom line at this point, there is still a lot of volatility with the stock market, behavioral actions that will take place due to passage of TCJA, as well as geo-political issues like North Korea.

Revenue Forecast

Economic Forecast


2018 Legislative Session


The 2018 Legislative Session has begun with a constitutional sine die date of March 11th. The SDAO government affairs team is in Salem working on behalf of our special district members. The SDAO Legislative Committee met on January 24th to review bills that could potentially impact our members.

Our bill summary and bill tracking sheet are updated each Monday during session. We encourage you to review this information.

Other items of interest include:

2018 House Speaker Appointments
2018 Senate Committee Appointments
2018 Joint House and Senate Committee Schedule


 

2017 Legislative Report


The 2017 SDAO Legislative Report is ready for download!