Save the Date! 2019 SDAO Legislative Day - January 18th in Salem - Registration information coming soon!

Join us for SDAO Legislative Day to learn more about what your association is accomplishing for special districts and what we can expect during the 2019 Legislative Session. Topics will include:

 

  • Election Recap
  • Governor’s Budget Priorities
  • House/Senate Legislative Caucus Priorities
  • PERS Update
  • Public Records Requirements and Public Records Advisory Committee

 

Speakers:

 

  • Val Hoyle, Oregon Bureau of Labor and Industries Commissioner
  • Ginger McCall, Oregon Public Records Advocate
  • Kevin Olineck, PERS Executive Director
  • Hasina Wittenberg, SDAO Government Affairs
  • Mark Landauer, SDAO Government Affairs


SDAO Government Affairs Department

PO Box 12613
Salem OR 97309-0613
Toll-free: 800-285-5461
Salem Area Phone: 503-371-8667
Fax: 503-371-4781

  • Hasina Wittenberg, Government Affairs Director
    503-708-8079
  • Mark Landauer, Government Affairs
    503-896-2338
 
SDAO Legislative Committee  (you must be logged in to view this content)

 

SDAO Legislative Program


SDAO provides legislative representation and advocacy services on behalf of its members on issues that come before the Oregon Legislature and various state administrative agencies. The majority of these services are performed by SDAO’s Government Affairs staff. Policy direction and guidance is provided by the SDAO Board of Directors and SDAO’s Legislative Committee which meets twice a month during legislative sessions. In a typical legislative year, the SDAO Legislative Committee will review and act on approximately 1,000 pieces of legislation, each of which may have an impact on special districts. 
 Legislative Update (11/16/2018) 
   

Election Update (11/14/18)

SDAO Government Affairs Staff have compiled results from the November 6, 2018 general election. Please see below for information about candidates and measures.

House Candidates
Senate Candidates
Statewide Candidates
Miscellaneous Measures
Infrastructure Measures
Library and Park Measures
Public Safety Measures
School Measures

 


State Revenue Forecast (11/14/18)

Today, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its sixth of eight economic and revenue forecasts for 2017-2019 This forecast is somewhat critical in that it is used in order to develop the Governor’s Recommended Budget for the 2019-2021 biennium which will be released in early December.  The current forecast anticipates a slowdown in the economy but the big question is when that slowdown will occur, how much of a slowdown and how long it will last.  The Feds will continue to increase interest rates and there is a delay to the economy on these rate increases.  2019 will continue to see growth in the Oregon economy.  In 2020, they expect the economy to begin to slowdown.  2021 and 2022 are expected to continue to slow.  However, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis is not calling for a recession in the Oregon Economy yet.  They do admit that there could be a full-blown recession within that time frame though.

Revenues continue to beat predictions and as a result, Oregonians' predicted kicker in 2019 has been increased for the 2nd time from the previous forecasts.  As you will recall, the kicker is provided in the form of an income tax rebate.  You will recall that one of the primary drivers for the kicker has been the Federal Tax Cut that was enacted earlier this year.  This will also cause some strain during the 2019 – 2021 session which is already predicted to face nearly a $1 billion structural shortfall in meeting current service levels.  With talk about a possible recession in the future, one should recall that Oregon is now in its best position it has ever been when the inevitable downturn in the economy returns – meaning that the state has saved nearly 10% of the what is being spent in the current biennium.  Thereby, placing the state in the position to be able to draw from those savings when the inevitable recession actually occurs.

Now to the numbers:

Projected 2017-19 net General Fund Resources are up $59.5 million (0.3%) from the September forecast.  Projected 2017-19 Lottery resources are up $16. million (1.1%) from the last forecast. Combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $75.5 million (0.3%) from the June forecast.

 

Personal income tax revenue was up $675.3 million (3.8%) from the Close of Session (COS) estimate.  Corporate tax revenue was up $62.7 million (21.3%) from the September forecast and is up $229.6 million (21.3%) from the COS forecast.  Net GF and Lottery resources are up $1.339.8 billion  (6.3%) from the COS forecast.

 

As a result, both the Personal and Corporate Kickers will kick even more than previously predicted.  The June forecast predicted a  $555.3 million kicker.  The June Forecast predicted a $686 million kicker.  Today’s forecast predicts a personal kicker of $724.4 million personal kicker.  The Corporate Kicker, which is directed to education rather than back to corporations will see an infusion of $229.6 million.

 

The ending balance for this biennium is expected to be about $1.05 billion and is up nearly $140 million from the last forecast. 

 

Overall Economic Forecast 
Revenue Forecast 




State Revenue Forecast (8/29/18)

Today, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its fifth of eight economic and revenue forecasts of the 2017-2019 The forecast is showing a slowdown (termed an inflection) in the economy beginning in 2020.  They are predicting the slow-down will affect both the national and state economy.  These headwinds are due to a number of factors including the end of the federal spending bill 2018/2019, interest rate hikes, demographics, no more federal tax cuts, the simmering trade issues taking place among others.  The challenge will be for the Fed to control interest rates properly in order to delay or mitigate a recession.  Interestingly, the next forecast will serve as the basis for the Governor’s Recommended Budget for the 2019-2021 biennium which will be released in early December.

Revenues continue to beat predictions and as a result, the Oregonian's predicted kicker in 2019 has been increased from the previous forecast.  As you will recall, the kicker is provided in the form of an income tax rebate.  You will also recall that one of the primary drivers for the kicker has been the Federal Tax Cut that was enacted earlier this year.  This will also cause some strain during the 2019-2021 session which is already predicted to face structural shortfall in meeting current service levels.  With talk about a possible recession in the future one should recall that Oregon is now in its best position it has ever been when the inevitable downturn in the economy returns – meaning that the state has saved nearly 10% of the what is being spent in the current biennium.  Thereby, placing the state in the position to be able to draw from those savings when the inevitable downturn in revenue occurs.

Now to the numbers:

Projected 2017-19 net General Fund Resources are up $85.7 million (3.4%) from the June forecast.  Projected 2017-19 Lottery resources are up $26.5. million (1.8%) from the last forecast.  Combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $166.8 million (0.7%) from the June forecast.

 

Personal income tax revenue was up $625 million (3.6%) from the Close of Session (COS) estimate.  Corporate tax revenue was up $21.4 million (6.4%) from the June forecast and is up $207.8 million (19.3%) from the COS forecast.  Net GF and Lottery resources are up $1.264.3 billion  (5.9%) from the COS forecast.

 

As a result of this forecast both the Personal and Corporate Kickers will kick.  Based on these numbers a Personal Kicker of has increased from $555.3 million from the June Forecast to $686 million in today’s forecast.  The Corporate Kicker, which is directed to education rather than back to corporations will see an infusion of $207.8 million.

 

The ending balance for this biennium is expected to be about $1.05 billion and is up nearly $140 million from the last forecast.


2018 SDAO Legislative Summary

The 2018 SDAO Legislative Summary has been mailed to all district key contacts and is also available for download


State Revenue Forecast (5/23/18)

Much earlier today, the Office of Economic Analysis presented its fourth of eight economic and revenue forecasts of the 2017-2019 biennium (it is hard to believe we are already half-way through).  Oregon's overall growth continues to slow but revenues continue to beat predictions and as a result, Oregonians may very well see a kicker in 2019 in the form of a tax rebate.  The other primary driver of the unexpected windfall when the Close of Session (COS) forecast was made back in May of 2017 (kicker is based off the COS prediction – if revenues exceed the forecast by more than 2% the kicker kicks and taxpayers get back anything exceeding the COS forecast), is the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) that was passed by Congress earlier this year.  Those changes and the response to those changes by the Oregon Legislative Assembly during the short legislative session are largely responsible for this sudden influx of revenue.  However, this will also cause some strain during the 2019 – 2021 session which is already predicted to face a nearly $2 billion structural shortfall in meeting current service levels.  Interestingly, Oregon is now in its best position it has ever been when the inevitable downturn in the economy returns – which could happen rather quickly in the event of a trade war with China.

 

Now to the numbers:

 

Projected 2017-19 net General Fund Resources are up $833.1 million (4.1%) from the March forecast.  Projected 2017-19 Lottery resources are up $9. million (0.6%) from the last forecast.  Combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $842.1 million (3.9%) from the March forecast.

 

Personal income tax revenue was down $1.1 billion (-0.6%) from the March forecast but is up $547 million (3.2%) from the Close of Session (COS) estimate.  Corporate tax revenue was up $77 million from the March forecast and is up $196.7 million (18.3%) from the COS forecast (due to TCJA).  Net GF and Lottery resources are up $1.097 billion  (5.1%) from the COS forecast.

 

As a result of this forecast both the Personal and Corporate Kickers will kick.  Based on these numbers a Personal Kicker of $555.3 million will go back to those tax payers with a tax liability (2017’s kicker was about $464 million by comparison).  The Corporate Kicker, which is directed to education rather than back to corporations, will see an infusion of $196.7 million.

 

The ending balance for this biennium is expected to by about $911 million and is up nearly $766 million from the last forecast. 


 

State Revenue Forecast (2/16/18)

Today the Office of Economic Analysis presented its third economic and revenue forecasts of the 2017-2019 biennium.  Oregon's economy continues to grow.  However, Oregon's overall growth is slowing with the loss of nearly 9,300 jobs and personal income down nearly a half billion from the December forecast.  This forecast is one that is marked with a great deal of uncertainty - made all the more difficult because the market correction that took place last week.  The other primary driver of the uncertainty is due to the federal Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) that was recently passed by Congress.  Specifically, it is difficult to predict the behavior of individuals and corporations based on their accountants advice.  For example, it is difficult to predict what corporations who repatriate their offshore savings will do, whether they will reinvest that money, buy back stock, hand out large dividends and so on.  As a result, there are a lot of unknowns.

 

It should also be pointed out that this forecast is based on CURRENT LAW.  The Legislative Assembly is working on a bill, SB 1529, that would change statute, in response to the (TCJA) that is predicted to result in a net $240 million additional to state revenue. 

 

Projected 2017-19 net General Fund Resources are up $69.8 million (0.3%) from the December forecast.  Projected 2017-19 Lottery resources are up $29.3 million (2.1%) from the last forecast.  Combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $99.1 million (0.5%) from the December forecast.

 

Personal income tax revenue is up $27.4 million (0.2%) from the Close of Session (COS) estimate.  Corporate tax revenue is down $98.8 million (9-9.2%) from the COS forecast (due to TCJA).  Net GF and Lottery resources are up $255.4 million (1.2%) from the COS forecast.

 

At this point there is no personal or corporate kicker projected for the 2019-2021.  However you will recall that you will get a personal income tax kicker in the form of a tax credit for your Oregon income taxes for 2017.  The amount the kicker total is approximately $463 million.

 

Interestingly, Oregon's Rainy Day Fund and Educational Stability Fund combined with General Fund reserves are currently at $1.3 billion representing 7% of the current General Fund and is expected to increase to $1.54 billion, or 7.9% of the GF, by the end of the biennium.

 

Bottom line at this point, there is still a lot of volatility with the stock market, behavioral actions that will take place due to passage of TCJA, as well as geo-political issues like North Korea.

Revenue Forecast

Economic Forecast


2018 Legislative Session


The 2018 Legislative Session has begun with a constitutional sine die date of March 11th. The SDAO government affairs team is in Salem working on behalf of our special district members. The SDAO Legislative Committee met on January 24th to review bills that could potentially impact our members.

Our bill summary and bill tracking sheet are updated each Monday during session. We encourage you to review this information.

Other items of interest include:

2018 House Speaker Appointments
2018 Senate Committee Appointments
2018 Joint House and Senate Committee Schedule


 

2017 Legislative Report


The 2017 SDAO Legislative Report is ready for download!

 


 


PERS Presentation
(Adobe PDF File)